The Real Reason For Drops in Homelessness

Cities around the country are saying that homelessness is decreasing in their jurisdictions. There are really two major reasons cited for these drops:

The first reason cited is because cities are implementing “ten year plans” that include developing permanent supportive housing. They are saying that their plans are working, and that more people are getting off the streets.

The second reason cited is because the homeless counts (mandated by HUD every two years) are becoming more accurate. Earlier counts were more estimates, current counts are supposedly more accurate. Estimates are usually given higher numbers.

Here in Los Angeles, where two years ago they counted almost 90,000 homeless in the county (and 250,000 people were homeless throughout the year), the above reasons are not as valid. The last count was earlier this year, and the numbers will be released this summer.

For one, there is no “ten year plan” that is being implemented. LA’s Blue Ribbon Panel (which I was also part of) developed a “framework” but not a “plan”. So whatever LA’s numbers end up being this year, it cannot use the “plan” as a reason.

Clearly, the second reason will be cited… a more accurate count. However, unless we count every person living on the streets (all 90,000) any count will still be an estimate. Of course, this year’s “estimate” might be more accurate. But whether there is an accuracy rate of 10% or 40%, the margin of error will still be between 9,000 to 36,000 people. That’s a big margin of error.

These numbers games (which I wrote about in the LA Times two years ago), are just that… games.

Until we can document an exact number of permanent housing units built, and/or an exact number of shelter beds increased, we really can’t tell how many people are being transitioned off the streets and into housing.